Report: U.S. Prison Population to Hit 1.7 Million

Researchers Predict Additional $27 Billion in Corrections Spending for Next 5 Years

WASHINGTON — The U.S. prison population is expected to reach 1.7 million within the next five years — an increase of more than 192,000 inmates — if no changes are made to federal or state sentencing and release policies, according to a study commissioned by Pew Charitable Trusts.

The report, “Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007-2011,” projects the national prison rate will jump 13 percent by 2011, meaning 562 per 100,000 residents — or one out of every 178 Americans — will be incarcerated.

“It’s the equivalent of locking up the entire cities of Atlanta, Baltimore and Denver,” says Adam Gelb, project director for Pew.

Analysts predict $27 billion in additional spending on corrections during the next five years, including $15 million in operating costs and $12 billion in new capital construction costs.

The United States spends more than $60 billion a year on corrections, up from $9 billion 25 years ago. The current average annual operational cost per prisoner for individual states is $23,876. The average cost for the Federal Bureau of Prisons is $23,429.

Pew analysts worked in conjunction with the Washington-based JFA Institute, a nonprofit consulting firm, to obtain population projections from all 50 states and the Federal Bureau of Prisons. Of those polled, 42 states — accounting for more than 90 percent of the U.S. prison population — submitted official estimates. Researchers worked with the remaining eight states to develop projections based on their most recent prison admission and release data.

The inmate population is expected to rise in a majority of states. Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Montana and Vermont can expect one new prisoner for every three currently in the system if there are no changes to their sentencing and release policies, the report states.

Florida’s prison system is expected to cross the 100,000-prisoner threshold, making it the third state to do so, along with Texas and California.

Prison authorities in Colorado, Washington, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah and South Dakota anticipate there will be one new prisoner for every four now incarcerated, according to the report.

Louisiana has an incarceration rate of 835 prisoners per 100,000 residents — one of the highest rates in the nation — and the report projects that figure to reach 859 within five years.

The report does not predict any growth for Connecticut, Delaware or New York.

Analysts attribute the rise in the inmate population to state and federal policies that affect how many inmates are admitted into the prison system and how long they stay, including: mandatory minimum sentencing; a decline in the number of inmates granted parole; stricter sentencing for parole and probation violators; and the creation of three-strikes laws.

The study also shows that the number of repeat offenders in some states have contributed to the population increase, due to a lack of programming designed to curb recidivism, including drug courts and re-entry programs.

States in the West, Midwest and South show increasing numbers of methamphetamine cases, which have become significant contributors to prison growth, according to the report.

The female inmate population is projected to increase by 16 percent by 2011, while the number of male inmates will grow by 12 percent, the report states. The female prisoner population has been growing at a faster rate than the male population for several years. Studies show that the number of female inmates has increased by 57 percent since 1995, compared to the 34 percent increase for males.

The average age of prisoners is also on the rise because of longer sentencing. The average age of inmates placed on parole increased from 31 to 34 years old between 1990 and 1999, according to the report.

Analysts project inmates over the age of 55 will become a significant portion of the population and will impact state and federal spending due to medical costs.

“The older population is an artifact of longer sentences,” says James Austin, a researcher with the JFA Institute. “That population is going to increase and become very expensive to house because of medical costs. It will require more medical care and that’s going to become a cost issue for states.”

While the implications of the report are significant for state prison systems, the projections are not unavoidable if state legislators make changes to sentencing and release policies.

“Policy determines what happens,” Geld says. “Over the past few years, states have taken a variety of steps to reduce the number of admissions to prison or reduce the length of stay. There can be action on any number of fronts to reduce the growth of the population.”

Alternatives to incarceration, such as drug courts and re-entry programs, have been successful in reducing recidivism in some states, analysts say.